Sotheby’s or Christie’s?

As in 2001, Christie’s and Sotheby’s produced similar performances on sales in H1 2002 (EUR 546 million and EUR 522 million respectively between January and July), with similar buy-in ratios (71% of lots at each auction house found a buyer). As the market shifts from the US towards Europe, any change in the balance of power within this oligopoly is likely to depend on how their subsidiaries perform in the main art markets. The UK has become the growth driver for the market in only a few months and is now on an equal footing with the US. With 2000 more lots sold this season, Christie’s has made the UK its stronghold.

And yet, unlike 2001, Christie’s volume sales this year have so far exceeded those of Sotheby’s. While the number of lots sold by Sotheby’s has fallen sharply (down by around 2,300 on H1 2001) Christie’s volume sales have risen by 4.3%. Christie’s seems to be looking to develop London as a high-growth niche market and with almost 6,000 lots sold, it is now much more strongly positioned there than Sotheby’s.

Sotheby’s achieved excellent results in the US, selling nearly 79% of the lots it puts up there. In the US market, many collectors must have been pleasantly surprised when they sold their works at Sotheby’s. In New York, 39% of the auction house’s art works went for more than their high estimate and only 24% for less than their low estimate. Conversely, in the US, Christie’s seems to have overestimated its art works: 25% of lots were bought in and 38% of pieces offered failed to reach their low estimate.

Sotheby’s seems to be generally more accurate in its estimates than its rival. In most countries, almost 40% of lots were sold in the estimate range in H1 2002. Outside the US and the UK, 42% of Sotheby’s auctions exceeded the high estimate while the buy-in ratio was 28%. In the same markets, Christie’s knocked down only 35% of works sold for more than their high estimate although the buy-in ratio was lower at 23%.

So, will it be Sotheby’s or Christie’s?

Breakdown of hammer prices according to presale estimations Auctions realised during the first half of the year 2002 Sotheby’s

Hammer Price  Below  Low Estimate 

Hammer Price Between Low Estimate and  High Etsimate Hammer Price  Exceeding  High Etsimate % of lots sold Number of lots sold United States 24% 37% 39% 79% 2297 United Kingdom 24% 44% 33% 68% 4828 Other Countries 17% 41% 42% 72% 2630 All Countries 22% 41% 37% 71% 9755 Christie’s

Hammer Price  Below  Low Estimate 

Hammer Price Between Low Estimate and  High Etsimate Hammer Price  Exceeding  High Etsimate % of lots sold Number of lots sold United States 38% 32% 30% 75% 2784 United Kingdom 29% 40% 31% 68% 5875 Other Countries 24% 41% 35% 77% 2816 All Countries 30% 38% 32% 71% 11475
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